Russia Invades Ukraine… Special Report
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is the largest military attack on a European state since World War 2.
First things first: this is a tragedy for the Ukrainian people, who are the clear victims of an unprovoked attack. Fortunately, the world sees this move for the naked power grab that it is. As such, Russian President Vladimir Putin has become increasingly isolated from the international community. He also risks losing support at home, both among average citizens and the wealthy elite that make up his inner circle, as financial sanctions make life increasingly difficult under the Putin regime.
Meanwhile, despite Russia’s overwhelming military might, Putin appears to have massively underestimated the willingness of average Ukrainian citizens to take up arms and defend their home turf. This includes Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who refused an evacuation offer from the United States on Friday, stating:
"The fight is here; I need ammunition, not a ride."
Putin has made an overnight hero of Zelensky, who has inspired millions of Ukrainian citizens to stay home and fight against the overwhelming Russian army (in size, at least). Social media is playing a major role here.
Putin - a famous technophobe who rarely uses a computer - will soon learn firsthand the power of viral social media campaigns. Let’s not forget that it was the televised horrors of Vietnam that were largely credited with turning the American public against that war. Broadcasting the Russian invasion through livestreamed social feeds will be the same phenomenon on steroids.
The bottom line: it’s very difficult to see how Putin wins here. We can only hope he sees the futility of this campaign and reverses course with minimal further damage. But of course, I’m no geopolitical or military expert. The goal of this publication is to help you identify both risks and opportunities, through good times and bad.
With that said, I’ve zeroed in on an opportunity created in the wake of the recent surge in volatility across global financial markets.
Russian Invasion Injects Volatility Across Global Energy Markets
Russia is second largest crude oil exporter behind Saudi Arabia. It’s also the single largest supplier of natural gas to Europe. So, as you would expect, the Russian invasion news sent crude oil and European natural gas prices spiking.
Now, I won’t try to predict where crude oil or European natural gas prices trade from here. There’s just too many unknowns at this point in the story. But here’s what I do know…
Some of the price action in ancillary markets created from the Russian invasion news made very little sense. This has created an opportunity to take the other side of the knee-jerk response from traders pushing prices around on little more than headline hype.
The trade I’ll mention today is designed to harvest some of this volatility, using the options market. I’m personally putting this position into my own personal account, and I hope to capture a cash-on-cash yield of approximately 10% within the next 18 days.
Let’s get started…